tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28307650594213384082024-03-13T12:29:30.185-05:00Inflation BlogIBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-36124930811934270662009-08-19T06:15:00.003-05:002009-08-19T06:21:53.476-05:00Warren Buffett on InflationThe Greenback Effect. Oped in the New York Times from Warrent Buffett on inflation. As with everything he writes, well worth reading. IN nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the butterflyeffect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily proportional. Forexample, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into the atmosphere may far morethan double the subsequent problemsIBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-52729046396176938212009-08-18T20:56:00.001-05:002009-08-18T20:57:46.960-05:00Credit Crunch Part DeuxVideo from Axel Merk of Merk Funds:IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-41709106414637955742009-08-18T20:51:00.001-05:002009-08-18T20:52:37.111-05:00Waiting for GodotProducer Prices in U.S. Decline More Than Forecast via Bloomberg. This is probably worth noting though:"Core costs were 2.6 percent higher than a year earlier."Doesn't sounds all that deflationary to me.IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-87299146015189980022009-08-08T09:09:00.002-05:002009-08-08T09:21:13.276-05:00Inflation Blog Weekend ReadingThe debt-inflation myth, debunked by UBS, from the FTThe problem with the idea of governments inflating their way out of a debt burden is that it does not work. Absent episodes of hyper-inflation, it is a strategy that has never worked. Government debt: GDP burdens tend to be positively correlated with inflation. Market mythology has created the idea that inflation will help reduce government IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-55135131106691107922009-08-06T19:03:00.001-05:002009-08-06T19:05:36.781-05:00Trade of the Century?via The Big Picture, Paul Brodsky & Lee Quaintance of QB Partners on gold. As the SGP implies, an ounce of gold would fetch almost $6,000 if we lived in a world characterized by disciplined money issuance. In effect, people and governments around the world would have been exchanging their Federal Reserve Notes for gold to the point that it would take 6000 bills to buy an ounce. The Shadow IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-49151928973508239112009-08-05T18:37:00.001-05:002009-08-05T18:38:58.638-05:00Bernanke’s Exit DilemmaOpEd from George Melloan in WSJ.Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke assured readers of this page (“The Fed’s Exit Strategy,” July 21) that he has the tools to prevent the huge reserves he’s pumped into the banks from generating an inflation that would abort an economic recovery.But does the Fed have the guts to use those tools? Will it risk censure from Congress and the Obama administration if IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-34206893673605758982009-08-03T17:05:00.001-05:002009-08-03T17:07:23.276-05:00Becker Says Bernanke May Fail to Curb Inflation DuringFrom Bloomberg. Nobel Prize-winning economist Gary Becker said he is concerned that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may bend to political pressure and fail to raise interest rates quickly enough to contain inflation. Becker, a University of Chicago professor, warned that there is a “big risk” of inflation as the economy recovers, largely because of the hundreds of billions of dollars IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-822735529138292032009-08-03T17:02:00.002-05:002009-08-03T17:05:14.423-05:00Barron's on Inflation - Beware of Rotting MoneyArticle here (subscription required). WHICH IS A BETTER STORE OF VALUE, BANANAS or corn? The answer is obvious to anyone who leaves a bunch of bananas lying around for a couple of weeks. Green bananas turn yellow, then black. They soften, then they rot. The fruit that was worth a couple of dollars two weeks earlier becomes worthless, at best. More likely, one must expend effort to clean up the IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-66789546381356505952009-08-03T16:50:00.001-05:002009-08-03T16:51:56.600-05:00Doom, gloom, greed & fear: What markets should expect nextSome thoughts from Marc Faber on the dollar and equity markets from the FT.Another reason for near term-caution, in Faber’s view, is the increasing likelihood of a US dollar rebound. As of last week, he notes, the net number of contracts speculators held betting on a decline versus a rise in the value of the dollar against currencies traded on the CME was nearing extremes, which in the past was IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-11772758133758241402009-08-03T16:47:00.001-05:002009-08-03T16:48:47.379-05:00Paul Krugman on InflationThe Big Inflation Scare from the New York TimesSuddenly it seems as if everyone is talking about inflation. Stern opinion pieces warn that hyperinflation is just around the corner. And markets may be heeding these warnings: Interest rates on long-term government bonds are up, with fear of future inflation one possible reason for the interest-rate spike.But does the big inflation scare make any IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-27324138367636284462009-07-30T19:42:00.004-05:002009-07-30T19:46:47.294-05:00Inflation or Hyperinflation?Thoughts from Axel Merk of the Merk Hard Currency Fund (MERKX)and Merk Asian Currency Fund (MEAFX).Nothing during the financial crisis seems to have worked as planned by the Fed. Policies have been far more expensive as the Fed’s credibility has eroded. The Fed has repeatedly shown that it completely underestimates the political dimensions of its policies. Will the market really buy its tough IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-28119376634046546342009-07-25T10:39:00.004-05:002009-07-25T10:46:46.704-05:00How to Build a Portfolio Wisely and SafelyArticle from WSJ on portfolio construction depending on your inflationary view.InflationIf you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper and pork bellies should gain. Plus, commodities -- IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-18769399417653118312009-07-24T18:44:00.002-05:002009-07-24T18:51:05.668-05:00Jim Rogers: Commodities are 'the best place to be'Interview with Globe and Mail here. Throughout history, when people have printed lots of money, it has always led to higher prices. Throughout history, when governments printed, the money has to go somewhere. Historically, it has always gone into real assets, as people try to protect themselves. … It's not going to go into people buying new cars, it's going to go into wheat and silver and oil IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-58596857108100734252009-07-21T18:08:00.001-05:002009-07-21T18:10:21.612-05:005 Non-Traditional Inflation IndicatorsNice article from seeking alpha. We essentially use five indicators: Emerging market small caps vs. developed market small caps (EWX vs. GWX)Commodities in general relative to gold (CRB vs. GLD)Non US inflation protected Treasuries vs. ex US unprotected Treasuries (WIP vs. BWX)Commodity stocks vs. the broad US stock market (CRX vs. VTI)Commodities vs. US 30 year Treasuries (CRB vs. IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-61053751626109993192009-07-14T17:26:00.001-05:002009-07-14T17:30:24.646-05:00Interview with Jim Rogers.Transcript here. In the near term, markets seem to be more concerned about growth than they areabout inflation. The difference between the 10-year and the two-year bond yieldin the US has narrowed some 40 basis points since early June. Unlike you Jim,people are actually going out and buying long maturity treasuries because theydon't see growth, don't see inflation. So, what do say to these bond IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-36857359776178232862009-07-11T11:10:00.004-05:002009-07-11T16:56:10.374-05:00Inflation Blog Weekend ReadingMorgan Stanley: US Economic and Interest Rate Forecast: Does the Economy Need More Stimulus? Specter of inflation loomsBill Fleckenstein: What's next: Inflation or deflation?Seeking Alpha: How Precious Metals Can Preserve Your WealthIBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-27103122842410522372009-07-10T18:59:00.001-05:002009-07-10T19:00:58.912-05:00The great 'output gap' masks the real threat of inflationEdward Hadas argues that the so-called 'output gap' is masking the real threat of inflation. The so-called output gap isn’t as big as it seems. The gap – a measure of slack in the economy – may seem large after over a year of a deep recession. But some of the capacity built up during the boom is useless. That means it may not take a lot of growth before the economy hits inflationary buffers. IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-14438954565814151632009-07-10T18:09:00.004-05:002009-07-11T11:10:26.731-05:00Warren Buffett on InflationNot the first time he has commented on potential inflation, however he goes a little bit more into depth this time.Right now they are pouring on the medicine...we are likely to get a lot of inflation down the road. IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-7952666661400771812009-07-04T21:37:00.004-05:002009-07-04T21:41:51.522-05:00David Tice Interview with BloombergInterview with the manager of the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX).The deflationary legs are early before we to get to another inflationary leg. IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-51854060131672681402009-07-03T17:05:00.000-05:002009-07-03T17:06:50.152-05:00PBS Interview with James GrantHere.GRANT: Well, the interest rate that people tend to watch of course is the rate that the Fed Reserve sets or fixes to use a less delicate word and that's the Federal funds rate, the overnight lending rate in the banking system and the Fed in its august, Solomonic wisdom has fixed a rate very near zero. And I keep on -- I keep on waiting for an outraged cry from the constituency of American IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-41097693475707324122009-07-03T16:56:00.001-05:002009-07-03T16:56:57.297-05:00Hyperinlation Nation Part 3IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-26618574651819904822009-07-03T16:55:00.001-05:002009-07-03T16:55:52.326-05:00Hyperinflation Nation Part 2IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-26981119344645215812009-07-03T16:46:00.000-05:002009-07-03T16:47:02.814-05:00Hyperinflation Nation Part 1IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-83268103335524689072009-07-03T14:20:00.001-05:002009-07-03T14:21:47.564-05:00Two Short-Term Scenarios for GoldTwo Short-Term Scenarios for Gold. From Seeking AlphaGiven the certainty of enormous long-term gains in the precious metals sector, investors should maintain a long-term outlook. “Buy and hold” may be a dead strategy in many conventional sectors of the economy, but it is certainly a viable (and prudent) strategy for precious-metals holders – as well as in other strong, commodity-plays.IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830765059421338408.post-41199328668020306562009-07-03T14:17:00.001-05:002009-07-03T14:19:45.326-05:00Worthwhile Articles from Seeking AlphaInflation Is Going to Be a Major Problem... But Not Today Inflationary spirals take a long time to play out. The problem is by the time people realize we are in an inflationary spiral, it is too late. Rapid inflation can only be stopped by draconian measures at that time. There will be a time to get long commodities to protect against inflation, but not in 2009.Is Inflation a Fact… Or Just an IBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369940319773069436noreply@blogger.com