Saturday, August 8, 2009

Inflation Blog Weekend Reading

The debt-inflation myth, debunked by UBS, from the FT

The problem with the idea of governments inflating their way out of a debt burden is that it does not work. Absent episodes of hyper-inflation, it is a strategy that has never worked. Government debt: GDP burdens tend to be positively correlated with inflation. Market mythology has created the idea that inflation will help reduce government debt ratios. The facts do not support the myth. OECD government debt rises as inflation rises. Meaningful reductions in government debt will require a low inflation future.


The Fed's 'Last War'? Let's Hope So, from Seeking Alpha

We might as well buy some marble and hire a good engraver. The Fed and central banks around the world have all but written the epitaph of the next great boom bust period in global history. It will be a liquidity driven "recovery" that pails in comparison to the boom bust cycles we have previously created.

The problem this time around is that it's likely too boom in all the wrong places while the continued bust occurs across the entire consumer spectrum....

No Exit for Ben, from Peter Schiff

The bottom line is that Bernanke has no exit strategy. He can talk about it all he likes, but when it comes time to actually pull the trigger, his nerves will buckle. The current communications campaign is simply an attempt to calm the markets. I doubt few citizens or members of Congress had any hope of understanding the exit strategy mechanisms that Bernanke described. Many likely place their faith in his seeming mastery of financial minutiae. Sadly, as with the mythical “strong dollar policy,” confident talk may be the sum total of the Chairman’s strategy.